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| Last Updated:: 28/12/2024

Economics

Global Economic Scenario and National Outlook

 

              The short-term economic forecast from the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023 of United Nations predicts an imminent global economic downturn due to rising inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and increased uncertainty.

 

              The World Economic Outlook of International Monetary Fund, October 2023 forecasts that the global growth is to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and 5.8 per cent in 2024. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have growth modestly decline, from 4.1 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024, Global Economic Prospects, June 2023 of World Bank reiterates same.

 

            The UN statistics predicts that average GDP growth in India would moderate from 6.4 per cent in 2022 to 5.8 per cent in 2023, as higher interest rates and a global slowdown weigh on investment and exports. The World Economic Outlook of International Monetary Fund projected that the growth in India is to remain strong, at 6.3 per cent in both 2023 and 2024, with an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2023, reflecting stronger than-expected consumption during April-June.

 

           The UN forecast a safe position for inflation levels in India at 7.1 per cent in 2022, and it is expected to decelerate to 5.5 per cent in 2023 as global commodity prices moderate and slower currency depreciation eases imported inflation.

 

National Income

 

           The provisional estimate of Gross Domestic Product in 2022-23, at constant prices is Rs 1,60,06,425 crore registering a growth of 7.2 per cent over previous year. This is around two points less than the GDP growth rate for 2021-22, which was 9.1 per cent. Gross Value Added for 2022-23, however shows 7 per cent growth, against 8.8 per cent for 2021-22. The per capita GDP for 2022-23 is Rs.1,15,746 with a 6.1 per cent growth over the previous year. The details of national income estimates are shown below:

 

National income estimates for the periods 2020-21 to 2022-23. (Rs. in Crore)

Item

2020-21
(2nd  RE)

2021-22
(1st   RE)

2022-23
(PE)

Percentage

Change Previous

Over Year
2022-23

Domestic Product

GVA at Constant Prices

1,26,81,482

1,37,98,025

1,47,64,840

8.8

7.0

GVA at Current Prices

1,81,88,780

2,14,38,883

2,47,42,871

17.9

15.4

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant Prices

1,36,87,118

1,49,25,840

1,60,06,425

9.1

7.2

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Current Prices

1,98,29,927

2,34,71,012

2,72,40,712

18.4

16.1

Net Domestic Product (NDP) at Constant Prices

1,18,54,151

1,29,77,142

1,39,29,147

9.5

7.3

Net Domestic Product (NDP) at Current Prices

1,74,89,333

2,07,96,554

2,43,68,727

18.9

17.2

National Products

Gross National Income (GNI) at Constant Prices

1,34,96,925

1,46,19,532

1,56,81,337

8.3

7.3

Gross National Income (GNI) at Current Prices

1,95,63,240

2,30,01,260

2,66,95,929

17.6

16.1

Net National Income (NNI) at Constant Prices

1,16,63,958

1,26,70,834

1,36,04,058

8.6

7.4

Net National Income (NNI) at Current Prices

1,72,22,645

2,03,26,803

2,38,23,945

18.0

17.2

Per Capita Income

Per Capita GDP (Rs ) at Constant Prices

1,00,981

1,09,060

1,15,746

8.0

6.1

Per Capita GDP (Rs ) at Current Prices

1,46,301

1,71,498

1,96,983

17.2

14.9

Per Capita GNI (Rs ) at Constant Prices

99,578

1,06,822

1,13,395

7.3

6.2

Per Capita GNI (Rs ) at Current Prices

1,44,334

1,68,066

1,93,044

16.4

14.9

Per Capita NNI (Rs ) at Constant Prices

86,054

92,583

98,374

7.6

6.3

Per Capita NNI (Rs ) at Current Prices

1,27,065

1,48,524

1,72,276

16.9

16.0

Source: National Statistical Office Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Government of India RE: Revised Estimate, PE: Provisional Estimate

 

 

                  The growth in GVA at current prices for 2022-23 is 15.4 per cent, and it is 7 per cent at constant prices. In absolute terms GVA at current prices was Rs. 2,47,42,871 crore for 2022-23. Similarly, GDP at current prices grew by 16.1 per cent against 7.2 per cent at constant prices. The growth figures of GVA and GDP at current prices for 2022-23 was lower than that of the previous year by two per cent points. The details of India’s GDP, NDP, GNI and NNI at current and constant (2011-12) prices from 2012-13 to 2022-23 with percentage change over the previous year are given below:


 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - All India

Year

At Current Prices

At Constant (2011-12) Prices

GDP

% change

Per Capita

GDP

% Change

Per Capita

(₹. crore)

 

 GDP (Rs.)

(Rs. crore)

 

GDP (Rs.)

2012-13

9988540

  

80879

9280803

  

75148

2013-14

11272764

12.9

90110

9839434

6

78653

2014-15

12445128

10.4

98225

10536984

7.1

83165

2015-16

13764037

10.6

107280

11386145

8.1

88746

2016-17

15362386

11.6

118263

12298327

8

94675

2017-18

17098304

11.3

130124

13175160

7.1

100268

2018-19

18886957

10.5

142328

14003316

6.3

105526

2019-20

20074856

6.3

149701

14515958

3.7

108247

2020-21 (2nd RE)

19829927

-1.22

146301

13687118

-5.7

100981

2021-22 (1st  RE)

23471012

18.4

171498

14925840

9.1

109060

2022-23 (PE)

27240712

16.10

196983

16006425

7.2

115746

Source: Central Statistical Office, 2021, RE- Revised Estimates, PE- Provisional Estimate 

  

Net Domestic Product (NDP) - All India

Year   

At Current Prices

At Constant (2011-12) Prices

NDP

% change

Per Capita NDP (₹.)

NDP

% Change

Per Capita

(₹ .crore)

 

 

(₹. crore)

 

NDP (Rs.)

2012-13

8958496

  

72538

8301305

  

67217

2013-14

9934405

10.9

80530

8737681

5.3

69846

2014-15

11101191

11.7

87618

9356260

7.1

73846

2015-16

12313813

10.9

95976

10119785

8.2

78876

2016-17

13771661

11.8

106017

10917373

7.9

84044

2017-18

1,53,34,357

11.3

116700

11686409

7

88938

2018-19

1,69,06,970

10.3

127407

12392839

6

93389

2019-20

17909710

5.9

133555

12783337

3.2

95327

2020-21 (2nd  RE)

17489333

-2.35

129073

11854151

-7.27

87484

2021-22 (1st  RE)

20796554

18.9

151911

12977142

9.5

94792

2022-23 (PE)

24368727

17.2

176202

13929147

7.3

100717

Source: Central Statistical Office, 2021 , RE- Revised Estimates, PE- Provisional Estimate

 

Gross National Income (GNI) - All India

Year

At Current Prices

At Constant (2011-12) Prices

GNI

(₹. crore)

% change

Per Capita GNI (Rs. )

GNI

(₹. crore)

% Change

Per Capita GNI (₹. )

2012-13

9871777

  

79933

9172925

  

74275

2013-14

11132877

12.8

88992

9717062

5.9

77674

2014-15

12297698

10.5

97062

10412280

7.2

82181

2015-16

13604258

10.6

106035

11251420

8.1

87696

2016-17

15185986

11.6

116069

12153754

8

93562

2017-18

16913491

11.4

128718

13029307

7.2

99158

2018-19

18684632

10.5

140804

13850857

6

104377

2019-20

1,98,81,742

7.9

1,48,261

1,43,74,253

4.2

1,07,191

2020-21 (2nd  RE)

1,95,63,240

-1.6

1,44,334

1,34,96,925

-6.10

99,578

2021-22 (1st  RE)

2,30,01,260

17.6

1,68,066

1,46,19,532

8.3

1,06,822

2022-23 (PE)

2,66,95,929

16.1

1,93,044

1,56,81,337

7.3

1,13,395

Source: Central Statistical Office, 2021, RE- Revised Estimates, PE- Provisional Estimate

 

Net National Income (NNI) - All India

Year

At Current Prices

At Constant (2011-12) Prices

NNI

(₹. crore)

% change  

Per Capita

NNI (₹.)

NNI

(₹. crore)

% Change  

Per Capita

NNI (₹.)

2012-13

8841733

  

71593

8193427

  

66344

2013-14

9934405

12.4

79412

8615309

5.1

68867

2014-15

10953761

10.3

86454

9231556

7.2

72862

2015-16

12154034

11

94731

9985060

8.2

77826

2016-17

13595261

11.9

104659

10772800

7.9

82931

2017-18

15140556

11.4

115293

11540556

7.1

87828

2018-19

16704645

10.3

125883

12240380

6.1

98186

2019-20

17716597

6.1

132115

12641633

3.3

94,270

2020-21 (2nd  RE)

17222645

-2.8

127065

11663958

-7.7

86,054

2021-22 (1st  RE)

20326803

18

148524

12670834

8.6

92,583

2022-23 (PE)

23823945

17.2

172276

13604058

7.4

98,374

Source: Central Statistical Office, 2021, RE- Revised Estimates, PE- Provisional Estimate

  

        The sectorial distribution of GVA at constant and current pricess are given below:

 
 
 
  
 

State Income

 

                 As per the quick estimates, the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) for Kerala during 2022-23 at constant prices of 2011-12 is Rs 6,16,18,850 lakh. The Gross State Value Added (GSVA) for the same period at constant prices is Rs 5,32,68,632 lakh, and the per capita GSDP is Rs 1,74,214. Details are given in below:

 

   

                  The GSDP growth rate for 2022-23 at constant prices was 6.6 per cent, which was 12.97 per cent in 2021-22. The GSVA growth at constant prices for the same period was 6.19 per cent, and that was 12.74 per cent during 2021-22.

 

Per Capita State Income

 

              Kerala is among the top ten States of India in terms of per-capita Gross State Domestic Product. Kerala’s per-capita GSDP was Rs 1,74,214 in 2022-23; the corresponding national average was Rs 1,15,746. In other words, average income per person in Kerala was 1.5 times the Indian average in 2022-23.

 

             Per capita NSDP for Kerala was 1,59,505 at constant prices, and 2,63,945 at current prices during 2022-23 (Quick estimate). The growth of per capita NSDP at constant prices was 6.25 per cent and it was 12.59 per cent at current prices. The figure below plots per capita NDP and NSDP between 2013-14 and 2022-23 at constant prices. Per capita NSDP for Kerala was higher than the per capita NDP for all India-level, for all the years of comparison.

 

 

Sectorial Composition

 

                The quick estimates of 2022-23 shows that the service sector continues to drive the State economy by contributing 62.62 percentage of GSVA during 2022-23, followed by industry and agriculture. The details of sector wise GSVA distribution was presented in the table below: 

 

       Sectorial Distribution of Gross State Value Added (GSVA) 2022-23 at Constant Prices (Rs in lakh)

                            Industry of Origin

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22 (P)

2022-23 (Q)

% share

% share

% share

% share

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

8.55

9.64

8.97

8.52

Mining and quarrying

0.42

0.47

0.42

0.45

Primary

8.97

10.11

9.39

8.98

Construction

13.96

14.64

13.81

13.79

Manufacturing

11.53

13.31

12.66

13.00

Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

1.32

1.48

1.52

1.61

Secondary

26.82

29.43

28.00

28.40

Real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services

16.81

18.46

17.12

16.96

Trade & repair services

16.94

14.71

15.60

15.67

Transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting

7.48

6.59

7.40

7.16

Financial services

5.39

6.18

5.56

5.65

Public administration

3.38

3.21

3.77

3.61

Hotels & restaurants

1.51

0.77

1.04

1.03

Other services

12.70

10.55

12.11

12.54

Tertiary

64.21

60.46

62.61

62.62

TOTAL GSVA at basic prices

100

100

100

100

Source: Department of Economics and Statistics, GoK P: Provisional, Q: Quick Estimate

  

                  The composition of items as per the quick estimates shows that agriculture and allied activities constituted 8.52 percentage of GSVA during 2022-23. Construction was the biggest component of the secondary sector accounting for 13.79 per cent of GSVA during 2022-23. In tertiary and real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services constitute the biggest group, accounting for 16.96 percentages in tertiary sector. Manufacturing, trade and repair services, Transport, storage, communication and services related to broadcasting, and financial services were also major contributors of the State economy. The figure below depicts the trends in GSVA in basic sectors of state economy from 2019-20 to 2022-23.

 

 

                  There was a spectacular recovery for all the sectors during 2021-22 following the COVID-19 shock. In 2020-21, GSVA of service sector declined by 15.18 per cent but there was a turnaround and growth of 16.74 per cent in 2021-22. In the case of agriculture, growth rates were always and pace of growth in 2022-23 was similar to that in the previous year. The industry sector exhibited a strong recovery with growth rate of 7.26 per cent during 2021-22, which rose further to 7.72 per cent in 2022-23.

 

                     The details of the sectoral distribution are given in Table 1 and Table 2 GSDP with percentage change over the previous years for the last four years is given here . Details of GSVA, NSVA at constant and current prices during 2011-12 to 2022-23 are given at Table 1 , Table 2 , Table 3 , and Table 4.

 

Sector-wise Distribution of Value Added and Employment

 

                 The structure of the economy and workforce participation in Kerala is perceptibly different from the rest of India. The share of agriculture and allied activities in GVA is 15.13 per cent for agriculture and allied activities. But it employs 45.80 per cent of the work force during 2022-23, in India. However, in Kerala, there has been a large-scale withdrawal of workers from agriculture over the years, so that its share in total workforce participation is 27.27 per cent only in 2022-23 and which contributes 8.97 per cent of GSVA during 2022-23. The manufacturing sector contributes 12.66 per cent GSVA in Kerala and absorbs 10.91 per cent of work force. All India level, the sector employs 11.40 per cent of the work force and contribute only 17.72 per cent of the GVA.  

 

Shares of different sectors in Gross Value Added and Employment, Kerala and India, 2022-23

                                              Sectors

Shares in Gross Value Added

Shares in employment

Kerala (GSVA)

India (GVA)

Kerala

India

Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing

8.97

15.13

27.27

45.80

Mining and quarrying

0.42

2.20

0.31

0.30

Primary

9.39

17.33

27.58

46.10

Manufacturing

12.66

17.72

10.91

11.40

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services

1.52

2.33

0.52

0.50

Construction

13.81

8.41

15.37

13.00

Secondary

28.00

28.47

26.80

24.90

Trade, repair, hotels and restaurants

16.64

18.96

17.62

12.10

Transport, storage, communication and services related to broadcasting

7.40

  

8.07

5.40

Financial, real estate and professional services

22.68

22.49

4.01

11.40

Public Administration and other services

3.77

12.74

15.92

  

Tertiary

62.61

54.20

44.90

28.90

Total

100

100

100

100

Sources: Department of Economics and Statistics (for GSVA of Kerala) and National Accounts Statistics (for GVA of India) and Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) carried out by India’s Central Statistical Office, 2022-23 for data on employment.

  

District-wise GSVA

 

                   District wise distribution of GSVA at current prices shows that Ernakulum continues to have the highest income of Rs 1,20,50,520 lakh in 2022-23 as against Rs 1,07,42,614 lakh in 2021-22, registered a growth of 12.17 per cent. The Gross District Value Added of all the districts is given below:

 

 

 

Gross District Value Added of States of Kerala

 

District Name

Gross State Value Added at Basic Price (Rs in Lakh)

At Current Prices

At Constant Prices

2021-22

2022-23

Growth Rate (%)

2021-22

2022-23

Growth Rate (%)

(P)

(Q)

(P)

(Q)

  

Thiruvananthapuram

7700161

8558797

11.15

4661706

4925548

5.66

Kollam

7674961

8607496

12.15

4626685

4902598

5.96

Pathanamthitta

2198098

2415022

9.87

1284480

1348732

5.00

Alappuzha

6476415

7244618

11.86

3997566

4251426

6.35

Kottayam

5192966

5826437

12.20

3266679

3465001

6.07

Idukki

2761794

3018949

9.31

1557235

1669824

7.23

Ernakulam

10742614

12050520

12.17

6653304

7069580

6.26

Thrissur

8403563

9352607

11.29

5113124

5426836

6.14

Palakkad

6279055

6932204

10.40

3725998

3944122

5.85

Malappuram

8154927

9052200

11.00

4790783

5101302

6.48

Kozhikode

7072928

7923554

12.03

4250231

4539962

6.82

Wayanad

1540847

1717924

11.49

869649

917336

5.48

Kannur

5907147

6642146

12.44

3627133

3871380

6.73

Kasaragod

2917852

3175922

8.84

1741027

1834984

5.40

GSVA

83023327

92518396

11.44

50165599

53268632

6.19

Source: Department of Economics and Statistics, (P: Provisional Q: Quick)

 
 

District-wise Per Capita Income (GSVA)

 

                    The analysis of District-wise per capita income indicates that Ernakulum continues to stand first with the per capita income of Rs 2,02,863 at constant (2011-12) prices in 2022-23 as against Rs 1,91,613 in 2021-22. The per capita gross district value added with corresponding rank and growth rate is given below: 

 

 

Per Capita Gross District Value Added at basic price, constant prices, 2011-12

District

2021-22 (P)  Rs

Rank

2022-23 (Q) Rs

Rank

Growth Rate (%)

Thiruvananthapuram

137951

7

145214

8

5.26

Kollam

171577

3

180947

3

5.46

Pathanamthitta

109200

12

113425

12

3.87

Alappuzha

185222

2

195817

2

5.72

Kottayam

162745

4

171528

4

5.40

Idukki

141220

6

149686

6

5.99

Ernakulam

191613

1

202863

1

5.87

Thrissur

155880

5

164800

5

5.72

Palakkad

123440

10

130112

10

5.41

Malappuram

103045

13

109422

14

6.19

Kozhikode

128425

9

136648

9

6.40

Wayanad

100351

14

104305

13

3.94

Kannur

136926

8

145441

7

6.22

Kasaragod

122094

11

127641

11

4.54

Total

142551

  

150605

  

5.65

Source: Department of Economics and Statistics P: Provisional, Q:Quick

  

                  Highest growth rate of per capita GDVA is recorded as 6.40 per cent in Kozhikode District and lowest growth rate recorded in Pathanamthitta District at 3.87 per cent. District-wise and sectoral distribution of GSVA from 2020-21 to 2022-23 at current and constant (2011-12) prices are given in Appendix 1.1.14, 1.1.15 , 1.1.16 , 1.1.17 , 1.1.18 and 1.1.19.

 

Expenditure Pattern:

 

                   Expenditure of State includes three components viz. revenue expenditure, capital expenditure and expenditure on loan disbursements. The total expenditure in nominal terms increased from Rs 66,244.01 crore in 2013-14 to Rs 1,58,738.43 crore in 2022-23, recording a CAGR of 10.20 per cent. Out of the total expenditure , in 2022-23, Non-Plan and Plan expenditure stood at Rs 1,25,988.45 crore (79.37 per cent) and Rs 32,749.98 crore (20.63 per cent) respectively.

 

Revenue Expenditure:

 

                Revenue expenditure involves both development and non-development expenditure. Development expenditure includes expenditure on Education, Health, Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Industries, Labour and Employment. Nondevelopment expenditure comprises interest payment, pension payment, debt charges, administrative services and others. Details of revenue expenditure are given in the table below:

 

 

 

Year

Trend in Revenue Expenditure Rs in crore

Total Revenue Expenditure

Development Expenditure

Non-Development Expenditure

Amount

Annual Growth Rate

Amount

% of total Revenue exp.

Amount

% of total Revenue exp.

2008−09

28223.85

13.39

15154.3

53.69

13069.6

46.31

2009−10

31132.38

10.31

16908.6

54.31

14223.8

45.69

2010-11

34664.81

11.35

18918.6

54.58

15746.2

45.42

2011-12

46044.62

32.83

25069.8

54.45

20974.8

45.55

2012-13

53488.74

16.17

29889.0

55.88

23599.7

44.12

2013−14

60485.50

1 3.08

32921.1

54.43

27564.4

45.57

2014-15

71746.43

1 8.62

39182.2

54.61

32564.2

45.39

2015−16

78689.47

9.68

41762.7

53.07

36926.8

46.93

2016−17

91096.31

15.77

48602.6

53.35

42493.7

46.65

2017−18

99948.35

9.72

52979.5

53.01

46968.8

46.99

2018−19

110316.39

10.37

56788.0

51.48

53528.4

48.52

2019−20

104719.92

−5.07

47550.2

45.41

57169.7

54.59

2020−21

123446.33

17.88

71224.0

57.70

52222.3

42.30

2021−22

146179.51

18.42

74026.85

50.64

72152.66

49.36

2022−23

141950.94

−2.89

70133.18

49.41

71817.75

50.59

2023−24BE

159360.91

12.26

80157.87

50.30

79203.04

49.70

Note: From 2006-07 on wards, assistance to LSG is being classified under “Grant in Aid and Contributions”, Developmental Expenditure of the devolution to LSGs is also reckoned.  


                  The operational and maintenance cost for the completed projects and programmes are also classified under the revenue account. Grants provided by the State to meet salaries and pension liabilities of employees in the Universities and State autonomous bodies and also the pension liabilities of employees of Panchayat Raj Institutions are classified as revenue expenditure. Major portion of revenue expenditure devolved to the Local Self Government Institutes is utilised for the creation of capital assets at the local government level.

 

                 The operational and maintenance cost for the completed projects and programmes are also classified under the revenue account. Grants provided by the State to meet salaries and pension liabilities of employees in the Universities and State autonomous bodies and also the pension liabilities of employees of Panchayat Raj Institutions are classified as revenue expenditure. Major portion of revenue expenditure devolved to the Local Self Government Institutes is utilised for the creation of capital assets at the local government level.

 

               In 2022-23, the share of committed expenditure in revenue expenditure increased compared to the previous year. Expenditure on committed liabilities on salaries, pension, interest payments, subsidies and devolution to the LSGIs constituted 71.54 per cent of revenue expenditure. In 2022-23, salary and pension as per cent of total revenue expenditure decreased to 45.08 per cent from 48.84 per cent in 2021-22. Interest payment as per cent of total revenue expenditure was 17.74 per cent in 2022-23 compared to 15.94 per cent in 2021-22. Details of Revenue expenditure are given in the Appendix 1.5.4 and 1.5.5

 

Capital Expenditure:

 

                 As most of State expenditure on Human Capital is categorised as revenue expenditure, the outlay in capital expenditure has always been small. Still, the Government of Kerala is committed to infrastructural development in the State and has initiated innovative financing models to support major infrastructural projects for the sustainable development of the State economy. These models have already begun to show positive results by attracting long term investment in capital projects. Details of capital expenditure and total expenditure are given here.

 

                  The share of government spending on capital projects in various sectors has increased in recent years. The capital expenditure of the State in 2022-23 was Rs 16,787.49 crore. Public Works continued to remain the major segment of capital outlay with 19.38 per cent of the total capital outlay in 2022-23 followed by, Agriculture and allied activities (5.44 per cent), Industries and Labour (3.78 per cent), and Irrigation (2.88 per cent). The trend in capital outlay is given here.

 

 Global Economic Scenario during the Covid - 19 Pandemic

National and State Income for the period 2008-22

 

 

Source: Central Statistical Organization and Department of Economic & Statistics,

Economic Review 2008-23,  Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Kerala