The Kerala Agricultural University’s Academy of Climate Change Research and Education has stated that Kerala is likely to receive a deficit monsoon in 2012.

According to G.S.H.L.V. Prasada Rao, Special Officer with the academy, only 657 mm of rainfall was received between June 1 and July 11 this year against the annual average of 943 mm.

Only 20 per cent the total monsoon rainfall is received in August. About 12 per cent of rainfall is received in September.

“The average monsoon rainfall over Kerala is around 1,925 mm between June 1 and September 30. Of this, 35.5 per cent of rain is received in June; 33 per cent in July; 19.5 per cent in August; and 12 per cent in September. Heavy rainfall in June and July may end in rain deficit. The total deficit of rainfall since June 1 has been 30 per cent or more,” he said.

The average annual rainfall received is 683.6 mm in June, 636.9 mm in July, 376.6 mm in August, and 228.4 mm in September.

“Assuming the same amount of rainfall is received in August and September, the total rainfall will be round 1,300 mm. At the current rate, the 30 per cent deficit in monsoon rainfall is likely to be maintained by the end of September. Or else, intensive low-pressure systems should form to bring more rain,” he said.

Statistics show that the monthly rainfall in June and July is declining and that in August and September is increasing.

“It reveals a shift in rainfall patterns. Though the distribution of rainfall may not affect major crops, except paddy and black pepper, Kerala’s water resources are likely to be hit,” he added.

Source: The Hindu,19 July 2012