Sea warming may reduce monsoon rainfall: Met Dept.
With the development of unfavorable weather conditions, the Metrological Department on Friday forecast less than average rainfall for the current season. It is update of the long range monsoon forecast, the Met said the country as a whole is expected to receive 93 percent seasonal rainfall of the long period average for the season. In April, weather scientists had said the country would receive 95 percent rains of the long period average. The adverse effect on the monsoon rains is because of the warming of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific region, the Met Department said, "For the past few months the dynamical models have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred", it said in a statement here.
The updated forecast has a model error of 4 percent. The Met said that July is likely to receive 95 percent rainfall of the long period average (LPA). The July forecast has a model error of 9 percent, which means that the country could receive 109 percent if conditions become favorable, but in case of adverse weather, the rainfall could be 86 percent of the LPA. The accumulated seasonal rainfall over the country between June 1 and 27 was 107 percent of the LPA, which means seven percent excess.
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